Fingers crossed.

"davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com" (davesaddiction) 01/08/2020 at 10:47 • Filed to: None

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Unfortunately, the Ayatollah wants more...

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Iran is telling its people they killed 80 Americans... (maybe that lie will be enough to appease the hundreds of thousands that came out for the funeral?)

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farscythe - makin da cawfee! > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 10:55

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yeah.... i dont think that area is going to be a great place for the troops for a while

well... better put...i think its going to be even shitererer

that may have been it for the official retaliation tho... that just leaves all the unoficial retaliations from uhh... wasnt us militias?

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 11:01

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I’m not convinced either side will let the other have the last word.

And it’s a little dangerous when the supreme leader contradicts the foreign affairs minister...

phenotyp > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 11:03

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I cannot understate how much it pisses me off that world-stage diplomacy/negotiation/stupidity is conducted via Twitter.

Fine for nerd jokes, or customer complaints about airlines, or organizing revolutions. But government officials using it to communicate like this?

What a stupid, stupid thing.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > phenotyp 01/08/2020 at 11:08

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You go where the people are. It used to the town square, now it’s Twitter. It’s just a tool. Currently no faster way to reach the most people. The stupidity is in how you use it (see our “fearless leader”...).

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 01/08/2020 at 11:08

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Iran has always been willing to play the long game...

The Ghost of Oppo > WilliamsSW 01/08/2020 at 11:13

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It’s also dangerous when the P resident contradicts the Secretary of Defense.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 11:17

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welp...looks like trump will be giving a speech any moment now

lets hope he doesnt say anything stupid....

lol

Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/08/2020 at 11:27

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That’s the best laugh I’ve had in ages

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/08/2020 at 11:35

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Listening now.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 11:37

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They have a fascinating (if surreal) culture.

Anybody that wants insight into the national psyche would be encouraged to read “The Ayatollah Begs To Differ” . It’s an eye-opening look at their society from a complete insider perspective.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > phenotyp 01/08/2020 at 11:38

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Keep in mind that the guys that launched Twitter admitted at inception that they had zero idea what it might be used for.

This checks out in real life, as it happens.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 11:43

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that sounded like more threats... (well..read like more threats to me..no sound)

guess we’re not looking to bury the hatchet

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/08/2020 at 11:57

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WTI oil price dropped 5% today (now 4%) , so plenty of people are thinking it’s not going to get worse any time soon.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 11:58

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heres to hoping....everything is shit enough imo

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/08/2020 at 12:08

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What percentage of the general population there wants a more free, “Western” lifestyle, and what percentage are totally loyal to the regime?

Can’t imagine being a teenager there in the ‘70s (especially a girl/woman), enjoying the new freedoms, and then having to live the last 40 years under strict Islamic law...

Chariotoflove > phenotyp 01/08/2020 at 12:13

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Twitter used this way is nothing more than electronic bumper stickers. It tries to reduce thoughtful conversations on complicated topics to pithy slogans that polarize. 

Snuze: Needs another Swede > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/08/2020 at 12:16

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I’m going to check this out.  A couple years ago I read “The Coldest Winter” which is a great geo-political/battlefield history of the events leading up to, and the beginning of, the Korean War.  It really gave me a lot of perspective on the whole situation with North Korea back when Trump and Kim were BFFs.  I’ve been looking for a similar book regarding Iran, and this might be it.  

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 12:16

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That book I cited is fascinating in this regard... Written by a very Americanized (Hell, he IS American) young man descended from family roots with ties both to the pre-Revolutionary government elite but ALSO relatives on the other side of the family who are buddies-with-the-Ayatollahs.

His take, which isn’t widely recognized in the West, is that there is a LOT of personal liberty (non-obvious) and people’s personal beliefs and home life are not targeted the regime. He details some alcohol soaked parties in “dry” Iran, which are never challenged by the cops or “culture police”. A man’s home is his Palace, basically.

Also, that the wealthy power-broker system is pretty much off-limits to the Ayatollahs... they’ve learned not to piss of f the people-with-wealth. Overlay that with a very mystical interpretation of modern Islam and you end up with all sorts of contradictions.

I’d heartily recommend the book— it’s a very, very complicated culture. And, oh by the way, you probably can’t trust a darn thing they say. What is said and what they mean are very, very different things.  That is baked into the culture at every level.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/08/2020 at 12:20

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That’s what I’ve assumed: that life in many homes is far different that what we see (and what’s allowed) in the streets.

It’s added to my list, which I’ll get started on right when the kids are grown up, or I’m retire, or both. =)

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/08/2020 at 12:21

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It’s a fascinating, very personal, look at the culture. I highly recommend it.

Here’s a sneak peek.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/steve-coll/the-ayatollah-begs-to-differ

Textured Soy Protein > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 12:23

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Military bases and other high-value targets in the DC area are on lockdown. My house is pretty close in to the city but not near those targets, and my office is 5 miles farther out than my house. But I have to drive past Walter Reed tomorrow night. That’ll be fun.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Textured Soy Protein 01/08/2020 at 12:26

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Definitely proper to take precautions. As much as I hate our current surveillance state, here’s hoping that the systems we have in place to identify anyone planning an attack do their job these next few weeks and months.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 12:28

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Here’s the Cliff’s Notes:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/steve-coll/the-ayatollah-begs-to-differ

One anecdote: The ritual of “getting out of a taxi” wherein the Taxi Driver insists that it’s been such a pleasure to haul you around that he could not possibly accept and compensation. And you are morally-obligated to insist that the meter amount couldn’t possibly be sufficient compensation for such a blissful ride and you INSIST that he accepts MORE than the meter amount. HE THEN is adamant that he should pay YOU for the pleasure of your company. This goes back and forth for a couple of minutes until you both agree to compromise on the meter amount and go on your way.

HOWEVER, if you believe what he says when you first exit the cab and accept his offer of “ a free ride” and take off.... Well, he and his brothers will hunt you down like a mad dog and slit your throat. That sort of “cordial BS misdirection” is interpreted as “polite” and it pervades every transaction in society.

ttyymmnn > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 12:48

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I’m waiting for Tyler’s take on this over at The Warzone . Their coverage has been the most comprehensive that I’ve found.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone

Textured Soy Protein > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 13:03

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Oh yeah, not complaining about it, I’d rather them be prepared than not. I’ll just leave for my appointment a little earlier than usual so I can make it in time, even if I have to crawl past Walter Reed. Such is life in DC, sometimes.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > ttyymmnn 01/08/2020 at 13:06

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Same. That last link was from Joe from there - very informative.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/08/2020 at 13:08

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Interesting. I read guest of the revolution last year. There was a point weeks in when she realizes she’s in even more danger as she understands the conflicting groups “oh no one is in charge”. People think the revolution was one monolithic block.

What gets brought  to the current stage is the revolutionary guard report to the ayatollah, not the government. So who is the one responding

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 13:09

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Trump’s speech today went about as well as it could have, and seems to be pointing to both sides trying to de-escalate things at least for now. But relationship is obviously singificantly more tense going forward now and there’s no telling what will happen next.

Also many people in the US don’t seem to understand how fragile the relationship between the two countries is, going back all the way to 1953 when the US and UK successfully overthrew a democratically elected government to preserve oil interests, propping up and backing Saddam Hussein in the 80s during the Iraq-Iran war, shooting down an Iranian airliner with 290 civilians on board in 1988 (and subsequently bestowing medals on the crew that shot it down), and even eventually taking out Saddam Hussein creating a space for ISIS to flourish - that Iran has played a significant role in fighting....and of course the intense sanctions they’ve been enduring recently.

Of course Iran is no innocent actor either - everything from the hostage crisis, to their backing of the brutal regime in Syria, killing of innocent civilians in Syria and their own country , sponsoring, training, and funding  of terrorist organizations, and their antics in the Strait of Hormuz historically and in recent months.

This is a crazy, crazy messed up relationship and neither side is entirely innocent and each has some reasonable right to see the other as an enemy. That’s a huge part of why the Nuclear Agreement was a success - it was one step in ratcheting things down, with other stakeholders at the table too after decades of devolving relations. Every right exists to say it wasn’t perfect...but tearing it up, imposing sanctions, and continuing in this cycle that has lead to where we’re at today certainly wasn’t taking things in the right direction.

Where do we go from here, and will we have the sensibility to take the long term view (looking both back and forward) in to perspective as we make our next steps? I have zero trust that our president is capable of doing this - hopefully there are more sane people around him helping guide the country through this (but of course one viewing of Fox & Friends can undo any such efforts).

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/08/2020 at 13:21

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Oh, it’s a bizarre power structure— and even the “guy in charge” has to bow to the mystical mumbo-jumbo from the other powers-that-be . So even a reformer can’t really “reform”.

The big eye-opener in the book is also that “the Power Elite in North Tehran” never really gave up much between Pre and Post Revolution. The whole idea of the drug-and-whiskey fueled parties in North Tehran mansions (detailed in the book) runs completely counter to the general impressions of a Sharia-Law driven society. There’s LOTS of blocks of power and they have an uneasy relationship with each other.  Money talks, just like it does everywhere.

None of those power blocks have much to do with “The man on the street” we seem to wish would/could change things. The last three administrations seem to have completely misunderstood who they were dealing with and what they wanted.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 14:03

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A troubling aspect is that there have been no reports of any of the missiles being intercepted 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/08/2020 at 14:21

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They clearly had advance warning, though, for there to be no Iraqi or American casualties (yet reported).

phenotyp > Chariotoflove 01/08/2020 at 14:24

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Yeah. And that’s terrible .

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 14:26

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That’s the strategy in all of the Middle East. And Asia. And Russia. And, and and...

They don’t change leaders every 4-8 years. I’m not suggesting that their system is good (it’s not) but it makes foreign policy a bit more challenging when they can just wait for a new election. 

WilliamsSW > The Ghost of Oppo 01/08/2020 at 14:26

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Lol fair point

ttyymmnn > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 14:48

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Their latest reporting indicates that the Iranian missiles were VERY accurate. These ain’t Saddam’s scuds we’re dealing with. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > ttyymmnn 01/08/2020 at 15:06

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Nope.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > phenotyp 01/08/2020 at 16:01

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https://www.wired.com/story/donald-trump-iran-twitter-war/?utm_source=nextdraft&utm_medium=email

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/08/2020 at 20:12

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i used to eat lunch with an iranian guy, who had a loaded 3 series and a place in the nice town. The way he acted and talked of cars, I knew he came from money. After he switched jobs, another person made a comment “oh did h go abck to his shack”

to which my coworker responded, “you know he grew up in a mansion with a butler right?” It is interesting how the photos of revolutionary college students in fatigues gets the 79 revolution lumped in with cuba, NVA, and 1980s afghanistan.

bubblestheturtle > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/08/2020 at 21:25

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This is enough for the direct confrontation, which had to be conducted while their “blood was up”. I have no doubt Iran will continue to seek asymmetric and cyber opportunities.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > bubblestheturtle 01/09/2020 at 09:30

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And they, of course, conveniently lie about “crushing American bones” and serious casualties on our side to appease the hundreds of thousands who called for #HardRevenge in the streets. By their actions, they’ve shown clearly that they don’t want to escalate tensions, and thankfully Trump took notice and dialed back as well. They’ll surely continue to be a thorn in our side in many ways, but hopefully they’re smart enough not to attempt a terrorist attack that would demand a quick, heavy response from our military.